– the economic case Malaysia cf HS2

Interestingly Malaysia was talking of abandoning the KL – Singapore HS line.  This is a textbook example of a route with traffic volumes that should be ideal for an economically viable high speed railway.  However it is good to see high speed mania being challenged on the grounds of capital if not operating cost.  It may be politics, money, the cost, the revenue or a mix – it is early days.  BUT it does make sense in that the existing route is being enhanced and will serve at least four major centres – not every one will want to hurtle from the Singapore or JB to KL.

Now it seems the development is merely postponed – that is good as it could be a successful project.  Malaysia and the region has economic and population growth ahead.

There has been silence since the revised but still flawed October 2013 ‘economic case’ for HS2 – as to where the projected passenger numbers are to come from.  Not every intercity rail journey is north from London and rail growth is not expanding at the fanciful rates dreamt up by the DfT and bidders for existing intercity franchises.

Further I have yet to hear a discussion on or an explanation of how the 69% of HS2 traffic to be extracted from existing routes will affect the viability of these routes.  It does not take a genius to identify that capacity will be freed up on the existing routes – but even with the UK flawed franchise system the fare paying passengers on existing routes mean that there is money that flows to Network Rail’s operation and maintenance of the routes.

Who will cover any shortfall? Will the tax payer have to cover the existing routes’ deficits, as well as subsidise HS2 operations?

HS2 forecasts of income need to be revisited – never mind the increasing capital costs.