HS2 may be doomed – because of cost increases.

What has never had enough attention is the fact that there is very unlikely to be sufficient revenue to cover operational costs – the taxpayer will have to pay to run the trains.

Forget recovering the capital cost. It is a sunk cost from day one, that is excluding the wasted and worthless millions spent to date.

I had hope that my first airing of the following would get pro HS2 folk to challenge,check and maybe find me wrong.

Passengers per km per day on HS lines (2011 base)

Germany 87

France 87

Japan 111

UK case for HS2 221

spot the odd one out!

then where will the passengers come from?

The fact that the DfT case assumes 69% of passengers will come from existing routes never explained how the income lost to these routes would be replaced – leaving the tax payer to further support these routes.

Then the recently proposed de-scoping reduction in train numbers per hour and line speeds both significantly deteriorate the original over optimistic figures.

BUT positively targeted UK rail investments can bring long term economic benefits (and real £££) – I am afraid HS2 never will.