Autumn 2019 – where is UK rail heading?   Will sensible decisions be made?

The Williams Review

promises “an absolute focus on delivering benefits for passengers”.   The omens are not good.   –  apparently both the Secretary of State for Transport Grant Shapps and Keith Williams, Chairman of the Rail Review, have heralded the West Coast Partnership as  “a step forward that is firmly in line with the review … capable of incorporating the reforms needed for the future”

How can this be so?  The West Coast Partnership web page offers more services, which means the stranglehold of a monopoly will strengthen – The West coast Partnership promises more services By 2022 – we will offer more than 260 extra services each week, increasing seat miles by more than 10% compared with 2017/18.

So how are competitors to run services – where is the choice for passengers?

This all hints at route concessions – competition being a chimera.  We have all the promises for refurbished trains, new rolling stock from the new franchise holders investing.  They invest nothing – why should they?  The “new” franchises are as the old – merely private companies extracting a margin from running trains.

Surely it is time for state ownership – UNLESS Williams is brave.

 

HS2 review.

That costs are too high this blatantly obvious.

Everyone is fixated on the capital cost of HS2 – rightly so, but of course after being incurred it can be ‘lost’ as a sunk cost.

BUT costs are not the principal HS2 problem.  The issue that is little talked about is the over optimistic number of passengers.  A lack of revenue,  69% of which is to come from existing routes.. Is there the demand for 1,000 seat trains leaving Euston every 3 or 4 minutes?

The latest proposal to decrease the operating speeds to more realist levels and curtail the Leeds route may save on construction costs but it also significantly lessens the numbers of available passengers that can be pumped along the lines – that is if there are the passengers are willing to travel.

From a ‘save the planet’ perspective – why are all these people travelling anyway?  “IS your journey necessary?”

The UK is not a large land mass.  Apparently, London is the attractive (???) destination.  London is the problem – with 80% of rail journeys, mostly commuter centred there.

 From a BBC commentator 3 Sept 19.   The government hopes its creation will free up capacity on overcrowded commuter routes.

Building HS2 is an impractical and very expensive way of dealing with that problem.

A review of the likely annual HS2 cash income is essential.  Just how much cash will flow to the route and from where?

Freight

There is little focus on freight – I doubt our Ministers have often had to drive along the M6, M1 or M5 so they would not appreciate the endless ‘trains’ of lorries.  Would they not comprehend that a human having to monotonously sit, hopefully attentively, driving a lorry makes little sense?

Bulk freight to a centre for distribution, “Red Star” distribution sating consumers demand for on-line purchases – to be picked up from the local station (by bike) would be much more efficient and environmentally sensible.

HS2  is a diversion from the real issues facing UK rail