Full Business Case High Speed 2 Phase One   April 2020

“Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen.”

If you are an ardent believer in HS2 – then you must have strong faith.  Obviously our Ministers do.   Issuing a “Notice to Proceed” given the comments in the revised Full Business case would seem to many to be reckless.

19 In addition to estimating the up-front costs of HS2, and providing assurance that they are affordable, the Financial Case also examines the financial outlook across the network once HS2 is operational. This analysis indicates that the introduction of HS2 will result in an improvement in the annual subsidy/premium balance for Britain’s railways. This is a benefit for the taxpayer.

Re 19 – There could be a benefit to the taxpayer if more many people travel by train – on the HS routes whilst not transferring from existing routes and continuing to commute into London.

20 Rapid developments and the uncertain outcome of the COVID-19 outbreak mean it has not been possible within the FBC to undertake specific analysis to determine the outbreak’s potential longer-term impacts to transport passenger demand. As is consistent with Transport Analysis Guidance, sensitivities on high and low demand scenarios that are underpinned by population and economic growth forecasts are included with the case.

21 The Department’s forecasts on long distance rail passenger journeys is lower than

the historical growth seen over the past 25 years. The low demand sensitivity assumes that demand is 16 per cent lower than in the reference case and sees a fall in the BCR of 0.3 for Phase One, shifting the value-for-money category to poor. However, until new information is available on the potential longer-term impact of COVID-19 on long-term demand and economic growth it is not possible to say whether this will materially impact the Value for Money of HS2.

Re 20 and 21  –  The current exceptional COVID-19 situation is mentioned and: –

“it has not been possible within the FBC to undertake specific analysis”

“it is not possible to say whether this will materially impact the Value for Money of HS2”

 Would any business invest today with such uncertainty?

The DfT and Ministers do have real faith.