Abandon or at least freeze HS2 till a proper appraisal is carried out

We may need high speed lines to and even from London one day. 

However today investments in local train trams and buses would do much more for the UK economy – we need local economic activity – social contact – jobs.

 HS2’s sunk costs to date, the overspends to date, the forecast higher spends all require considerable revenue to justify the project.  Revenue is needed even if the costs to date are written off as truly sunk. Pertinently existing UK railways need all the revenue they can get – the next control period for Network Rail indicates some decline.

Endlessly we have heard of re-scoping and rephasing of HS2.  Have the DfT and Treasury  re-appraised the project with today’s conditions as the base?

 Just bumbling on is no way to build for the future.

 There is no economic appraisal that could justifying starting and terminating trains at Acton and not continuing to Manchester and Leeds:

 ·       Acton is not a desirable terminus (see below) even if the dreamt of passenger numbers materialised.

·       The Elizabeth line and other connections just could not cope

·       Viable passenger numbers are required

 The unsuitability of Old Oak Common / Acton was recognised in the 2008 report.  

4.2.3      The importance of city centre to city centre travel in the rail market suggested it would be important

for HS2 to serve this core market effectively, since it was likely that the bulk of demand on HS2 would be drawn from existing rail trips. While the market to and from outer London should not be ignored, our analysis suggested any terminus station should provide good access to the existing rail market from central London. A central London station would tend to provide good access to this market. However, it was unclear whether a terminus outside of central London would achieve this

 4.2.7   This suggests a station outside Central London may still have a role as an interchange, allowing even better overall access for passengers travelling to and from London. However, as a terminus it is unlikely to be attractive. On this basis locations outside of Central London were not pursued in detail as terminus stations, whilst the most accessible Central London stations remained terminus options for HS2.

 This is but one historic report on HS2 – that our politicians ought to read!

A scan of these often reveals a history of ignorance and conceit in the utterances of many of our our leaders.

 A critical issue is the need for revenue as soon as possible but not at the expense of robbing it from existing routes which serve many more population centres. 

 There are so many matters that need to be updated.

 The project needs to be frozen until an honest appraisal is carried out.  I am positive that a proper appraisal will clearly demonstrate abandonment as the only realistic cash flow and economic solution. 

This may help support possible continuance of the existing UK rail system.

#HS2 #GBRail #Abandon2 HS2

 

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